Russian Defense Minister Replaced With Economist in Cabinet Reshuffle

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The Facts

  • After Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin was sworn in for a fresh, fifth term last week, Putin's longtime ally Sergei Shoigu was replaced as defense minister on Sunday. Andrei Belousov, an economist who served as Russian deputy prime minister, will now take on the role.

  • According to Russian law, following the inauguration of the president, all cabinet leaders must resign, enabling the newly sworn-in Russian leader — be it Putin or not — to make changes in the country's leadership.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Shoigu's role as defense minister was widely seen as untenable after one of his key allies was imprisoned on corruption charges and Shoigu was seen as not having done enough to root out the problem. This move allows Putin to get rid of him while allowing Shoigu to save face so he doesn't later become an issue.

Pro-Russia narrative

With Russia moving to a war economy, with a large percentage of gross domestic product going towards military expenditure, it's important to have an experienced economist heading the defense ministry so that national spending is streamlined — but also innovative — so that progress continues to move forward.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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