Spain: Conservative Opposition Retains Majority in Galicia

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The Spin

Right narrative

This overwhelming victory sends a clear message to the ruling Socialists that Spaniards will not be bullied or pushed around, marking just the first ripple in a massive wave that will unseat the party in response to its unconstitutional amnesty for Catalan separatists. However, it's concerning to note that their self-destruction will empower the most radical separatist elements in the country.

Left narrative

Despite the prevailing narratives, the Socialists did not perform poorly in Galicia due to the amnesty to Catalan separatists, as Feijóo himself had expressed support for that move. Winning in conservative Galicia was always going to be an uphill battle and the emergence of the BNG made it harder for the Socialists to secure seats. The election wasn’t great for the party, but the media needs to stop misrepresenting the cause of the results.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 5% chance that Spain will announce a snap general election before March 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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