Syria: Assad Flees as Insurgents Seize Damascus

Above: People wave guns in the air, as they gather to celebrate the fall of the Syrian regime in Umayyad Square on Dec. 8, 2024 in Damascus, Syria.  Image copyright: Ali Haj Suleiman/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Syrian Pres. Bashar al-Assad reportedly fled Damascus to Moscow on Sunday, ending his family's 54-year rule after militant forces captured the capital and called on Syrian citizens to preserve "the free Syrian state."

  • This comes after Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied groups launched an offensive from Idlib on Nov. 27, quickly seizing Aleppo, Hama, and Homs with minimal resistance from government forces.


The Spin

Narrative A

Assad's dictatorship and violent repression against his people is finally over. His family ruled Syria for more than 50 years with an iron fist, making it a farm for Iran's greed and a base for the illegal amphetamine Captagon that filled their coffers. Assad — with the backing of Russia and Iran — had bled the country dry, but today, it can look forward with cautious hope to peace, reconciliation, dignity, and inclusion for all Syrians.

Narrative B

Syria's takeover by rebels with historical ties to al-Qaeda raises serious concerns about the country ravaged by war and split among different armed factions. Their rapid advance may create a dangerous power vacuum, destabilize the region, and could lead to the establishment of an extremist Islamic state. Syrians, not radicals, should decide their country's future to ensure an orderly political transition.


Metaculus Prediction


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