Syria: Mohammed Al-Bashir Tapped as Interim Prime Minister

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Above: Armed groups opposed to Bashar al-Assad's regime, led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), took control of the city center of Homs provnce on Dec. 8, 2024. Image copyright: Izettin Kasim/Anadolu via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Mohammed al-Bashir was appointed as Syria's caretaker prime minister on Tuesday. It came after a 12-day offensive led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) overthrew the government of former Pres. Bashar al-Assad over the weekend.

  • Al-Bashir, who previously headed the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) in Idlib province, will lead the transitional government until Mar. 1, 2025, he said in a televised statement.

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The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The incoming Syrian regime has a unique opportunity to modernize both domestic and foreign policies, building on lessons from Assad’s failed promises of reform and the opposition's recent governance experience. Unlike Assad, who maintained authoritarianism and corruption, the new administration can capitalize on pre-existing constitutional proposals, a goodwill relationship with Israel, and Turkish support, to establish an inclusive, democratic country.

Establishment-critical narrative

Syria's future remains uncertain as this Western-backed regime change operation has created a power vacuum rife with challenges. While Israel and Western allies benefit by reducing Iranian and Hezbollah influence, Syria faces fragmentation from internal divisions, Turkey's ambitions, and Israel’s territorial incursions. The rise of Islamist factions like HTS further threatens stability, leaving no clear path to peace or prosperity.

Metaculus Prediction

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