Syria's Tangled Alliances and Rivalries: A Visual Guide
New York TimesDEC 2024
Syrian Militant Groups Agree to Merge Under Defense Ministry
story
Above:Â Leader of new Syrian administration, Ahmed al-Sharaa holds a press conference in Damascus, Syria on Dec. 22, 2024. Â Image copyright:Â Arda Kucukkaya/Contributor/Anadolu via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
Despite the initial euphoria at the fall of Assad's government, the challenges of governing all of Syria — with its rival militant groups and host of religious groups and ethnicities — are setting in. Sharaa will have to walk a fine line to keep promises of liberalism and respect religious freedoms while keeping the more hardline elements within his own camp happy.
Narrative B
Statements about religious tolerance from Sharaa are to be welcomed, but there is real concern about whether he really intends to keep them. They're likely intended to appease an international audience to gain acceptance, but in reality, the hardline conservative rule will slowly be implemented.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 90% chance that Syria will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
