Taiwan Elections: Frontrunner Vows to Maintain Status Quo, Engage With China

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The Spin

Pro-China narrative

Lai shouldn't expect to achieve different results if he plans to continue his party's policy to militarize Taiwan, seek secession, and resist reunification, particularly as that policy has escalated cross-Strait tensions in the first place. As long as US-backed pro-independence forces remain in control of the island, war will always be a looming threat.

Anti-China narrative

It's crystal clear that Beijing has aggravated cross-Strait tensions, including carrying out gray zone operations, in the hope that Taiwanese citizens will be intimidated into supporting the China-friendly KMT. Hopefully, the nation will not cave into this obnoxious strategy that has already failed several other times.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 55% chance that China will annex at least half of Taiwan before 2050, if the DPP wins the 2024 Taiwanese election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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