Thousands of Displaced Lebanese Return Home as Cease-fire Holds in First Day

Above: Joyful scenes in Beirut's southern suburbs as residents head back to their homes after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a cease-fire after more than a year of war on Nov. 27, 2024. Image copyright: Nael Chahine/Contributor/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Thousands of displaced Lebanese returned to their homes in south Lebanon on Wednesday after a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah came into effect, despite warnings from the Israeli military for them not to return until its forces have withdrawn.

  • US envoy Amos Hochstein, who helped mediate the deal, said that the cease-fire must hold and indicated that it should be permanent. In response, a senior Israeli official said that "fighting can restart at any moment," adding that "Israel will act firmly against any violation of the ceasefire."


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Now that quiet has been found on the Lebanese-Israeli border, the US will continue to work toward a cease-fire in Gaza that ensures the release of Israeli hostages and the end of Hamas' rule over the Palestinian enclave. The Biden admin. worked hard to cement this deal that allows displaced Israelis and Lebanese to return home.

Pro-Israel narrative

Within only hours of the cease-fire coming into effect, Hezbollah is testing Israel's limits. The group's fighters are already trying to enter areas along the border. For now, Israeli forces are simply firing warning shots to dissuade these violations, but it will act firmly if Hezbollah tries to return to the border in force.

Pro-Palestine narrative

The reason this cease-fire passed was because Israel was failing to achieve its goals in Lebanon and Netanyahu decided it is better to focus on the genocide in Gaza. Israel is seeking to clear northern Gaza of its population to make way for settlements. Israel's traditional secular elite may be unhappy that the war in Lebanon is over, but the new settler elite are licking their lips at the prospects of resettlement and an indefinite occupation of Gaza.

Narrative D

Israel only took a cease-fire in Lebanon because it failed miserably to reoccupy South Lebanon. For that to happen, martyrs of the resistance remained steadfast in their defense of Lebanese sovereignty and the Lebanese people at the cost of their own lives. Now the Lebanese displaced by Israel's aggression can return home at last.


Metaculus Prediction


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Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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