Tunisia court jails potential presidential candidates and bars them from upcoming election
GuardianAUG 2024
Tunisia: Potential Presidential Candidates Jailed, Banned From Upcoming Election
Above: President of the Republic of Tunisia Kais Saied Image copyright: Olivier Matthys/Contributor/Getty Images Entertainment via Getty Images
The Spin
Narrative A
While Tunisia is still far from a democracy, the current geopolitical landscape offers opportunities for Pres. Saied to gradually grow closer to the free world. Bright spots include the country's recent migrant deal with Italy and military training agreement with the US. As Russia and China seek more influence over Africa, Saied is an important ally worth keeping in the long term. If Saied continues to attack human rights, however, the West may have to shift gears.
Narrative B
Tunisia is too complex for outsiders to understand. Polls from earlier this year suggest that while 55% of Tunisians reject authoritarianism, 51% also reject the idea of a pluralistic parliamentary system, with a staggering 70% showing support for the president. The country is also divided among Muslim and secular groups, both of whom appear to reject the idea of Sharia law. Tunisians should certainly vote to figure out what system they want, but it's up to them and no one else.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 99% chance that Kais Saied will be re-elected president of Tunisia in 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
