UK Elections: Conservatives Launch Party Manifesto

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    The Facts

    • The UK's Conservatives launched their manifesto at Silverstone on Tuesday. Speaking at the event, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stated that while the UK had experienced "a difficult time," his party contained "big ideas to make [the] country a better place to live."

    • Within the manifesto, the party pledges a further two percentage point reduction to National Insurance by April 2027, having already fallen from 12% to 8% from the beginning of the year. The Conservatives also promise to abolish the main rate of National Insurance for the self-employed by the end of the next parliamentary term.


    The Spin

    Pro-establishment narrative

    Sunak's manifesto launch will have renewed confidence that there is still hope for the Conservatives yet. The party's document is full of reasonable and compelling pledges that may leave Labour slightly more nervous than many have expected. While some of the UK's deeper economic problems remain unsolved and ignored, it would be amiss to write off the Tories following Tuesday's surprising success.

    Establishment-critical narrative

    In a desperate attempt to avoid electoral wipeout, Sunak has once again attempted to halt the Conservative Party's inevitable political decline by offering unfeasible and unfunded tax cuts. After over a decade of lies, it is unlikely anything that the Tories have announced will change the minds of a fed up British public.


    Metaculus Prediction


    Public figures in this story