Many U.K. Conservative voters are considering switching to the anti-immigration Reform party
PBS NewsHourJUL 2024
UK Elections: Second Reform UK Candidate Defects to Tories
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Above: June 29: Supporters of Nigel Farage hold a counter protest against groups gathered to campaign against Reform UK in Clacton-on-Sea, England. Image copyright: Guy Smallman/Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images
The Spin
Conservative Party narrative
No one knows how Reform will do in this election but what many do know is that the party has turned itself into a fringe movement very quickly. While Farage thought that his scandalous statements on Ukraine and his party's continual flow of bigotry could be swept under the rug, voters come election day will likely turn their noses up to Reform's culture of hatred.
Reform Party narrative
Per usual, the media is trying to cherry-pick a handful of statements made by a couple of candidates and blame Nigel Farage and the entire party. In reality, some of these statements were made before Farage took charge, and those that were recently made were immediately condemned by the party's leadership. If Reform was so racist, why would the polls show it having more minority votes than the Liberal Democrats?
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 50% chance that the Reform Party will win at least 15.6% of the popular vote in the UK general election, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
