Rochdale: Is this the most chaotic by-election ever?
BBC NewsFEB 2024
UK: George Galloway Wins Rochdale By-Election
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The Spin
Establishment-critical narrative
Galloway's landslide victory in Rochdale shows just how much British voters are turning away from the two main parties following their failure to hold Israel to account for its action in Gaza. This victory will spark a wider movement in the UK and truly shake up establishment complacency, especially in international policy.
Pro-establishment narrative
Galloway is a controversial figure who stokes fear and division wherever he goes. He typically runs in predominantly Muslim areas, winning those seats by stoking anti-Israel hatred. This is a worrying turn of events for British politics, but one by-election result under exceptional circumstances is unlikely to indicate a broader rejection of the two-party system at the next general election.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 37% chance that the UK will have a Conservative Prime Minister on Jan. 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
