Why Sunak will struggle to win the credit for falling inflation
Spectator (UK)JUN 2024
UK Inflation Hits 2% Goal
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The Spin
Right narrative
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and the Tories have implemented an economic policy that is ending the UK’s cost-of-living problems far sooner than expected, and working people can’t afford to hand control over to Labour. By reaching the BoE’s target of 2%, interest rate cuts are on the horizon as the UK economy finally turns the corner.
Left narrative
Sunak and the Tories may try to claim credit for a positive inflation report that was driven by the BoE, but it's too little and far too late for it to have any impact on July’s election. The BoE almost certainly won’t cut interest rates on Thursday, and voters will remember Sunak’s tenure for the double-digit inflation of 2022.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 5% chance that the UK housing market will crash before July 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
