UK: Kemi Badenoch Replaces Rishi Sunak as Conservative Leader

Above: Kemi Badenoch stands to make a speech after winning the Conservative Party leadership contest on Nov. 2, 2024 in London, England. Image copyright: Dan Kitwood/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • Kemi Badenoch on Saturday became the UK's new Conservative Party leader, defeating Robert Jenrick by 12,418 votes. She received 53,806 votes, while Jenrick secured 41,388 votes.

  • Badenoch, 44, is the first Black woman to lead a UK political party and the fourth woman to lead the Tories. She succeeds Rishi Sunak, the first non-white British prime minister.


The Spin

Right narrative

While Badenoch's win is a historic political and personal achievement, she must immediately stop the bleeding to Reform UK if the party is to see any success and survival over the next election cycle. To the delight of Farage, the center-right continues to undergo an existential crisis — the party must unite once again and prove that it remains the political force once revered around the world.

Left narrative

Instead of recognizing the self-inflicted errors that handed the Tories their worst election defeat in modern political history, the party doubled down with two hard-right politicians hugely unpopular with the moderate British public. Blinded by Brexit-inspired nationalistic ideals, the Conservatives seem destined to slip further away from a credible electoral challenge.


Metaculus Prediction


Public figures in this story


Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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