Ukraine is in a race to stop Russia's mounting glide-bomb attacks
Business InsiderMAR 2024
Ukraine: Putin Issues Warning on Use of NATO F-16s
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The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
Putin starts his speech by claiming that he has no bad intentions against Western countries. Immediately contradicting himself, he then recklessly threatens those countries with attack, saying he would destroy NATO's F-16s aircraft — even if they were outside Ukraine.
Pro-Russia narrative
Russia has been consistent throughout the conflict that if F-16 fighter jets are delivered to Ukraine, they will have to be targeted and destroyed — as is the case with all other foreign-provided weaponry. Russia has also been consistent that if F-16s stage attacks from third countries, the bases in those countries would become legitimate military targets too.
Metaculus Prediction
There's an 8% chance that there will be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027, according to the Metaculus community prediction.
