Ukraine Sends Reinforcements After Russia Launches Offensive in Kharkiv

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The Facts

  • More than two years into the war in Ukraine, Russian forces opened up a new front by launching an offensive towards the northeastern city of Kharkiv in the early hours of Friday.

  • Despite being only 25 miles (40 km) from the Russian border, and lying west of the Luhansk region, which is almost completely under Russian control, Ukraine's second-largest city so far hasn't fallen into Russian hands at any point in the conflict.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Russia is likely hoping to seize on a window of opportunity to grab more territory while Ukrainian troops wait for the new US weapons packages to arrive. The Kremlin knows it will be much more difficult to have any success once the supplies of Ukrainian troops are replenished.

Pro-Russia narrative

With Ukraine's Western partners providing it with long-range weapons that have an increased range, it was necessary for Russia to create this buffer zone so that it can keep Russian citizens safe.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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