UNSC Expected to Vote on Palestinian Membership

Image copyright: John Lamparski/Contributor/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • It has been reported by Reuters that the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) will vote at 2PM ET on Friday on a resolution recommending Palestine be admitted as a member of the international organization.

  • Palestine's mission to the UN also announced via X on Wednesday that, on behalf of the organization's Arab Group, Algeria had presented a draft resolution concerning the country's membership to the General Assembly.


The Spin

Pro-Palestine narrative

Friday will provide both the US and UK the opportunity to side with democracy and join more than two-thirds of the UN's General Assembly that wish to see Palestine recognized as an official member. Despite committing unforgivable and unforgettable damage to the Middle East, the US and UK now possess the chance to finally create a path to meaningful peace by catalyzing international consensus concerning a sustainable two-state solution. History will remember the result of Friday's vote.

Pro-Israel narrative

Despite potentially reaching up to 13 UNSC votes, any resolution attempting to accept Palestine as a UN member is likely to be vetoed by the US. The reality remains that if Palestine is ever to be recognized, this must come as the result of consensus in the Middle East — not the decision-making of a distant international body that cannot state with confidence that Palestine truly meets its "peace-loving" criteria for ascension.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO