Dairy cows in Texas, Kansas test positive for avian flu
PBS NewsHourMAR 2024
US Dairy Cows Contract Bird Flu for First Time
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The Spin
Narrative A
This outbreak should not be a cause for alarm for humans. Scientists haven't found any evidence that this strain has changed in terms of making it easier to transmit to humans, indicating that the risk is low. Additionally, regulations for commercial dairy products ensure that pasteurized milk is safe for consumption.
Narrative B
Recent cases of bird flu in mammals are extremely worrying because they may suggest a mutation that's making it easier to transmit to humans. Additionally, multiple types of influenza viruses could potentially intermix within infected animals and create new viruses that could be even more harmful to mammals. This situation, and food supply chains, must be monitored extremely closely.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 5% chance that there will be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive), according to the Metaculus prediction community.
