US Election Primaries: Bowman Loses, Boebert Wins

Above: Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) speaks during a Get Out the Vote campaign event at Hartley Park on June 24, 2024 in Mount Vernon, New York. Image copyright: Michael M. Santiago/Staff/Getty Images News via Getty Images

The Facts

  • In US election primaries, Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) lost his Democratic primary to Westchester County executive George Latimer on Tuesday after pro-Israel groups and centrists strongly backed his challenger.

  • It's the first time that a Democratic "Squad" member has been ousted from Congress. This occurred in New York's 16th Congressional District despite the support of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY).


The Spin

Democratic narrative

Boebert and Bowman both represent the edges of their parties, so the contrasting outcomes in primaries speak volumes about the differences between Democratic and Republican voters. While Democrats generally want their leaders to compromise with Republicans, Republicans tend to support extremist candidates, especially those aligned with Trump.

Republican narrative

While Trump's endorsement remains vital as he leads the GOP field in the run-up to the 2024 elections, it's certainly not infallible — especially as shown in Colorado and Utah. Yet not too much should be read into these blips — the former president and presumed GOP nominee for 2024 still has dominant sway within his party.


Metaculus Prediction


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