US Set to Withdraw Troops From Niger by September

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The Facts

  • After Niger's military government ordered US troops to leave last month, the US said on Monday it would withdraw all 1K of them from Niger, a regional counterterrorism ally, within four months, concluding no later than September 15.

  • After many days of discussions, the new military leadership in Niamey declared US forces in Niger illegal, leading to the announcement of the withdrawal agreement. The US-Niger anti-jihadist mission ended after the July 2023 coup.


The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The forced withdrawal of US troops from Niger, and the failed negotiations on a new military treaty, will deal a serious blow to joint counterterrorism efforts. While bilateral ties are in tatters since mutinous soldiers overthrew the democratically-elected president, jihadist attacks have increased, and cooperation with Russia will make little difference. Despite this, Washington will maintain its partnership with Niger for the benefit of its people and the region.

Establishment-critical narrative

That the US will withdraw from Niger is another indication of the West's waning grip on Africa. It's laughable for Washington to claim that the US is concerned about democracy in Niger while US-trained officers led the coup. As a sovereign state, Niger decides for itself whom to enter new alliances with, especially after France and the US failed to curb Islamist terror in the country. Washington lacks foresight and a viable strategy, and Russia is skillfully filling this vacuum.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO