What We Know About the Polio Crisis in Gaza
New York TimesAUG 2024
WHO: Polio Vaccination Campaign Ahead of Target for Gaza Children
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Image copyright: Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus [via X]
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
With the clock ticking, the US and its allies are confident that after some tough negotiating, a deal between Israel and Hamas can be reached. A guaranteed end to the war will ensure increased humanitarian aid to the besieged enclave, the release of Israeli hostages, and create a better "day after" in Gaza without Hamas in power. The US will continue to work toward closing the gaps and ensuring peace and stability.
Pro-Israel narrative
Though Israel is committed to its war goals and the release of all hostages, a polio outbreak in Gaza would be a disaster for both Palestinians and Israelis. Israel has not accepted a cease-fire or a temporary truce that applies to all of Gaza, as the agreement stipulates that specific areas will see a cessation of hostilities. This demonstrates Israel's ethical and humanitarian stance in this conflict.
Pro-Palestine narrative
The US has consistently failed to address Israel's intransigence regarding the situation in Gaza. Allowing for a vaccination campaign is the bare minimum in terms of reducing the suffering of Palestinians who are still facing Israel's genocidal war. This has been a catastrophic failure of the West and the humanitarian system — assistance must be freely delivered into, and throughout, Gaza immediately.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 60% chance that Israel will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
