Day 310: Belarus Says It Downed Ukrainian Air-Defense Missile

Image copyright: Reuters [via Reuters]

The Spin


Narrative A

The firing of an air-defense missile into Belarus is a very serious incident that risked prompting an international escalation of the conflict. Ukraine needs to conduct a thorough review to prevent this type of potentially inflammatory event from occurring again.


Narrative B

The Kremlin is desperate to involve Belarus in its war of aggression in Ukraine. As such, it cannot be ruled out that Russia deliberately laid a route for one of its missiles that would lead to it being intercepted over the territory of the country.


Narrative C

The S-300 is a Soviet-era weapon used by both Russia and Ukraine. It's notoriously unreliable and is known to miss its targets and go astray. Although undesirable, there's nothing strange or suspicious about this incident.


Metaculus Prediction


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