Day 307: Ukraine Aims for UN-Backed Peace Summit by End of February

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The Spin


Narrative A

As the White House and others have noted, any peace settlement should come on Ukraine's terms. This includes restoration of territorial integrity, compensation and war-crimes prosecutions. It should also come with meaningul security guarantees to prevent future Russian aggression.


Narrative B

A sober analysis shows Ukraine is unlikely to drive Russian troops from all its territory. The longer the war goes on, the worse it gets for Ukraine, while increasing the chances of a hot war between Russia, the US, and NATO. The Biden administration has a duty to try and find a negotiated end to the war.


Metaculus Prediction


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