Morgan Stanley: US May Avoid Recession, But Not Europe

Image copyright: Reuters [via Malay Mail]

The Spin

Establishment-critical narrative

At this point, the debate over whether the US is officially in a recession doesn't matter. Prices for everyday goods are going up, unemployment is expected to rise above 4% — not including people who've stopped looking for a job — and loan interest rates are still devastatingly high. Average workers are still feeling crushed by this economy and no financial analyst's report can make them feel better. This administration must do more to defeat inflation.

Pro-establishment narrative

The Fed has been tackling inflation, and it has been working. Morgan Stanley isn’t the first to say there’s a lesser chance of a US recession than there was earlier this year, as Goldman Sachs has reduced the probability of a recession to 35%. Economic growth has already occurred and gross domestic product growth looks headed for about 1%.


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