Report: Earth Has 50% Chance of Breaching 1.5°C Threshold by 2026

Image copyright: AP [via NBC News]

The Spin


Narrative A

We have a climate emergency, and this report is yet another wake-up call. We must move away from fossil fuels and transition to renewable energy immediately if we are to be able to stay below 1.5°C. Failure to do so will mean confronting tipping points harmful for the entire Earth much faster than expected.


Narrative B

While alarming, accurate long-term predictions are difficult to make, and the numbers here are slightly higher than previous predictions by NASA and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Besides, 1.5°C of warming is only a 20-30 year average, and is by no means irreversible. There's still plenty of time to take action.


Narrative C

Climate and environmental disasters have been predicted by modern-day doomsayers for decades. None of the apocalyptic predictions have come true so far; why would this time be any different?


Metaculus Prediction


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