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Reuters Poll: US Heading Into Shallow Recession

  • #Economic conditions & trends
  • #Russia
  • #China
  • #Ukraine
  • #France
  • #Prices
  • #Finance
story
DEC 2022
Image copyright: reuters
story last updated DEC 2022

The Spin

Narrative A

It's very rare that prominent economists agree on a policy matter as important as interest rates, yet with wage inflation simply being too high there are several signs that a recession is looming. The personal saving rate is too low and savings are being used to finance current consumption alongside slowing factory activity. A hard landing is clearly coming for America.

Restoring America

Narrative B

Until now, the consensus economic view hasn't forecast a single US recession since records began in 1970. Within the market, it's not the inevitable that happens but rather the unexpected, and with the precedent of economists consistently being wrong surrounding recessions, maybe it's a sign that there won't be an economic crisis in 2023 after all.

FT

Metaculus Prediction


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