US Economy Adds 261k Jobs in October

Image copyright: VIEWPRESS/CORBIS/GETTY IMAGES [via Wall Street Journal]

The Facts

  • Exceeding the approximate 200k jobs predicted by economists, the US Labor Dept. on Friday announced that the US economy added 261k jobs in October, though the unemployment rate jumped from 3.5% in September to 3.7% last month.

  • The average monthly growth rate of 289k over the last three months is lower than the average of 539k during the same period the previous year but higher than the pre-pandemic average of 164k per month in 2019.

  • ADP, the US's largest payroll processing firm, reported Wednesday that private employers added 239k jobs, up from 192k in September. However, it noted that job growth wasn't widespread, with the leisure and hospitality sector accounting for 210k jobs created.


The Spin


Democratic narrative

Though it may seem counterintuitive, the slowdown in job growth from last year — while the market remains strong — means the Fed's interest rates are working. Though the economic recovery is slow, it's heading in the right direction under Biden's leadership, and Republicans don't seem to have any plausible alternatives if they were to win the midterms.


Republican narrative

While this report may seem optimistic on the surface, the reality is far from this: slowing job growth, combined with record inflation and rising unemployment, signals that a Biden-induced recession is on the horizon. The so-called "positives" of this job report won't be enough to carry Democrats through the final stretch of the campaign trail.


Metaculus Prediction


Articles on this story

Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters
Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters

Sign Up!
Sign Up Now!