China’s ‘Lost Decade’ Is Even Worse Than You Think
ForbesAPR 2022
The Spin
Narrative A
Signals indicate a tentative stabilization in China's economy following months of sputtering. A spurt in retail sales, a marginal decline in urban unemployment, and increased investment in manufacturing — all hint at a cautious cyclical recovery. Policy support from the PRC at this crucial juncture could now go a long way in strengthening this revival.
Narrative B
There is reason for caution here — managers of China's economy cannot rest until the property market is stabilized. August saw the steepest fall in new home prices in 10 months even as investment declined for an 18th straight month. There are major irregularities in this sector which must also be taken into account.