Day 365: Tensions Rise Over Breakaway Region of Transnistria

Image copyright: [via Sky News]

The Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

Ukrainian forces are planning a "false-flag operation" in Transnistria to justify launching an invasion of the region. Russia's defense ministry is closely monitoring the situation and will respond accordingly to any changes.

Anti-Russia narrative

Russia's claims about a "false-flag operation" in Transnistria are likely a cover for its potential plans to invade Moldova. Not only would this flagrantly violate the sovereignty of another country, but it could also open up a western front in its war with Ukraine.

Metaculus Prediction


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