Ecuador: Presidential Race Heads to González-Noboa Runoff

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The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Democracy is on the ballot in the upcoming Ecuadorian runoff election, as the country desperately needs to tackle organized crime. If the nation refrains from electing the candidate picked by Rafael Correa — a corrupt politician and authoritarian who has been criminally convicted — Washington should ramp up cooperation with Quito to show that lawful methods are effective at fighting violent drug gangs.

Establishment-critical narrative

Neoliberal policies have plunged Ecuador into security and economic crises — it's time for Ecuadorians to let the progressive Citizen Revolution return to power, as the country can't risk losing more time trialing inexperienced politicians. In the late 2000s, Correa managed to move a devastated, hopeless country forward. Today, he will assist González in getting the country back on track.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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