Ecuador's Youngest-Ever President Daniel Noboa Sworn In

Image copyright: Presidencia de la República del Ecuador [via Flickr]

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

The success of Noboa's months-long term will impact the future of democracy in Latin America, so Washington must swiftly step in to help him pull Ecuador out of its current crises and prevent the nation from once again supporting the authoritarian, pro-China correísmo. The costs of pursuing this action are little, particularly considering its substantial payoff, but the window of opportunity is closing.

Establishment-critical narrative

With Noboa in office, it's likely that the US will seek once again to intervene militarily in Ecuador with the feigned intent of collaborating against narco-trafficking and strengthening democratic governance. These moves, however, are intended exclusively to protect American interests in a country that has vast extractable reserves.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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