Global Warming Set To Break 1.5°C Limit By 2027

Image copyright: Getty Images [via CNN]

The Spin


Narrative A

While we are likely to breach the 1.5°C warming limit, it would be dangerous to encourage public fear or despair over such a development, as one or even a few years over 1.5°C would not be the end of the world. Painting it as such would make it politically impossible to combat the real climate threat; prolonged periods of more than 1.5°C, or worse, permanency at those temperatures. There's no need to panic, as doomsayers have unsuccessfully predicted climate disasters for decades.


Narrative B

Humans have failed our planet and are continuing to fail our future generations. The truth is that we either stop our greenhouse gas emissions or we let the planet disintegrate. We are facing a climate emergency and, if we choose to continue on this path, it is inevitable that humankind will be forced to adjust to a new, catastrophic form of normality.


Metaculus Prediction


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