Japan Destroys Flagship H3 Rocket in Failed Launch

Image copyright: Kyodo/Reuters [via CNN]

The Spin

Narrative A

JAXA's launch was a complete failure, and the H3 manufacturer, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, felt the short-term effects when its stock fell 1.8% in morning trade. More importantly, it will also have a long-term impact on Japan's future space policy, business, and technological competitiveness. Hopes were high that the new rocket would give the country a foothold in the increasingly competitive satellite launching business, but they have been dashed.

Narrative B

Tuesday's failed launch was undoubtedly a setback, but not a fatal one. As soon as Japan has located the problem, the next step will be to prove that the H3 is a reliable, user-friendly, and competitive vehicle for delivering satellites. While there's still a way to go, the H3 will potentially play a major role in the country's efforts to join others on the global space stage.

Metaculus Prediction


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