Kremlin Repels Drone Attack on Crimea's Sevastopol

Image copyright: Presidential Executive Office of Russia via Wikimedia Commons

The Spin

Pro-Russia narrative

Sunday's drone attack from Ukraine is the latest demonstration of Kyiv's use of terrorism and proves the West is directly waging warfare against Russia. The Ukrainian military is trying to show Moscow that its control of Crimea can be threatened, but using Western weapons outside the zone of the special military operation will weaken Kyiv's position in future negotiations and entail immediate retaliatory strikes in Ukraine.

Pro-Ukraine narrative

Kyiv must continue to strike at the Ukrainian peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014 to put it in a vulnerable position. By disrupting Russia's supply lines and destroying its naval bases, from which Iranian drones rain destruction on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure, Ukrainian forces have a real chance of achieving victory on the battlefield and bringing the months-long war to a successful conclusion — on Kyiv's terms.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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