The Spin

Narrative A

Musk can sugarcoat it all he wants, but Twitter is an ad-reliant platform and ad sales are projected to drop by around 28% this year over last. And the number one problem is Musk: Advertisers can’t trust him, especially since he’s rolled back rules related to objectionable content and revamped the verification system. For Twitter to survive, it will have to do better than break even, and that’ll only happen when the platform is separated from Musk’s personal brand.

Narrative B

Saving Twitter wasn't an easy task, but it looks like the worst is behind Musk and the platform. Twitter now has a sleeker workforce, a subscription model that’ll help offset advertising losses, and many advertisers are returning after waiting to see what Musk would do with the company. In a matter of months, Twitter could be in the black.

Metaculus Prediction


Public Figures


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