N. Korea Fires Ballistic Missiles After Protesting US Drills

Image copyright: EPA [via The Guardian]

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

These tests are a continuation of North Korea’s unpredictability and repeated threats, which have put the stability of the region at risk. Extended deterrence by the US and South Korea is the only option until Kim is willing to return to the negotiating table.

Establishment-critical narrative

The US can’t deny that it bears the main responsibility for declining diplomatic relations with North Korea, especially as the Biden administration has switched back to a confrontational course following former Pres. Trump's efforts at de-escalation. By fueling conflict, the US hopes to establish closer ties with Japan and South Korea to cut into China’s regional influence.

Metaculus Prediction


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