NATO Launches Arctic Exercise, Pledges to Protect Finland

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The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Finland's accession to NATO, along with the current exercises, shows that countries in close proximity to Russia are seeking protection from Moscow's neo-imperialist expansionism. This development amounts to a major strategic and foreign policy defeat for the Kremlin which, instead of weakening NATO through its aggressive policies, has further strengthened the defense alliance. Finland's and, ultimately, Sweden's accession to NATO are direct results of Russia's unjustified invasion of Ukraine.

Establishment-critical narrative

NATO isn't promoting peace and stability in the Russian neighborhood, but militarism and the interests of the West's military-industrial complex. In fact, it's the Washington-led military bloc that is constantly expanding toward the Russian border, not the other way around. NATO is not a defensive alliance but an aggressive and militaristic organization. By abandoning their long-standing neutrality, Finland and Sweden are making themselves vassals of Washington and its geopolitical ambitions.

Narrative C

This current NATO maneuver points to the ongoing race for dominance in the Arctic, which has so far received little global media attention. The vast region boasts untapped oil and gas reserves, as well as large quantities of rare minerals, and climate change is creating profitable new trade routes. As Russia continues to expand its military presence in the Arctic, NATO is eager to catch up in this strategically important region in which China also has ambitions. These developments suggest that the Arctic is emerging as a new backdrop of great-power rivalry.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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