New Zealand to Reverse Generational Smoking Ban

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The Spin

Narrative A

The prohibition of substances never works, and New Zealand's smoking ban was a poor decision in the first place. Those who couldn't have legally purchased cigarettes would have accessed them regardless, and the country's black market would've inevitably grown. While the government may have found alternatives to provide meaningful tax cuts, the reversal of cigarette prohibition kills two birds with one stone.

Narrative B

This decision prioritizes short-term funding over the long-term health of the country. With New Zealand's health services losing out on at least hundreds of millions of savings over the next two decades, as well as approximately 5K deaths a year no longer predicted to be prevented, the nation's younger generation is destined to bear the brunt of this poor decision later down the line.

Metaculus Prediction


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