Polls: Poland’s Law and Justice Party Set to Lose Majority

Polls: Poland’s Law and Justice Party Set to Lose Majority
Image copyright: Omar Marques/Getty Images

The Spin

Left narrative

These election results are good news for Poland. This could signal the end of eight years of bad politics, which have frequently caused Poland and the EU to clash. A new administration could have a significant impact on Poland's future, the balance of power in the EU, and the course of the Ukrainian conflict. This is cause for celebration.

Right narrative

The ruling nationalist conservative party won more votes than any single party and said it wanted to build a government led by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. It makes sense that the largest party would also have the first opportunity to try to create a new government. We will know more on Tuesday when the state electoral commission presents its final results. It's still possible that the Law and Justice party will yield great sway over Poland's politics.

Metaculus Prediction


Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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