Report: France Challenging Russia as World's Second Biggest Arms Exporter

Image copyright: AFP/Getty Images [via The Guardian]

The Facts

  • According to a report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) — entitled 'Trends in International Arms Transfers' — France is set to become the world's second-largest arms exporter in the coming decade, as it has recently narrowed its share gap to Russia's exports.

  • Paris has reportedly expanded its participation in the global arms trade from 7.1% in 2013-2017 to 11% in 2018-2022, due to rising exports to Asia Pacific and the Middle East. France is also one of the biggest suppliers to NATO members, along with the US and South Korea.


The Spin


Metaculus Prediction

Establishment-critical narrative

While those boasting France's weapons sales claim that the country would take advantage of so-called arms diplomacy to justify exports to authoritarian regimes — that may even use French-made weapons against civilians — Paris has failed to turn the assertion into a reality. France is not achieving any strategic autonomy but rather disturbingly becoming more dependent on autocratic, unscrupulous clients.


Metaculus Prediction


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