Report: Iran, US on the Verge of Prisoner Swap

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The Facts

  • The US and Iran have reportedly agreed upon the details of a prisoner swap that will lead to the release of five detained Americans in Iran and a similar number of Iranians imprisoned in the US this week.

  • This comes after Iran transferred five US citizens — including businessmen Siamak Namazi and Emad Sharqi and environmentalist Morad Tahbaz — from prison into house arrest on Aug. 10.

  • The upcoming swap will be initiated once $6B in Iranian oil revenue frozen in South Korea is sent to a pre-agreed account in Qatar. The US will reportedly ensure Iran spends the funds on humanitarian purposes rather than to sidestep sanctions.

The Spin

Right narrative

Iran is an adversary of the US — transferring large amounts of money to the country in exchange for American prisoners essentially amounts to paying ransom. The US shouldn't negotiate with or fund a dangerous country like Iran.

Left narrative

While the US may be allowing the unfreezing of Iranian assets in South Korea, this doesn't mean the country is easing sanctions. America is committed to pushing back against Iran's destabilizing actions in the Mideast and ensuring the funds are only used for humanitarian purposes.

Metaculus Prediction

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Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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