Report: US Economy Grew by 2.9% in Q4

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The Spin

Narrative A

While the economy is expected to be headed for a slowdown this year, it's clear that economic growth in 2022 showed a marked improvement from the first half of the year. Despite the headwinds of inflation and increased interest rates, as well as being a difficult year for the housing sector, the economy continues to defy recession fears.

Narrative B

Despite the strength of the labor market, the hiked interest rates — which will be felt in full force this year — means that the US likely won't be able to avoid a recession. Just because GDP didn't decline in Q4 doesn't mean that the economy is back on track by any means.

Metaculus Prediction


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