The Spin

Narrative A

Turkey's further détente with Syria is a blow to Syrian rebels and their fight against the brutal Assad regime. Yet, while Erdoğan has moved away from the goal of regime change in Syria as part of Turkish-Syrian reconciliation, Turkey is unlikely to withdraw from Syria and abandon its local client forces in its fight against the Kurdish YPG group. Despite recent signs of improvement, it would be naive to expect ties between Ankara and Damascus to return to normal anytime soon.

Narrative B

Turkey has not only deployed troops in Syria, violating Syria's territorial integrity, but has also played a key role in backing militants seeking to topple the Assad government. However, this only underscores the need for talks to resolve differences between Damascus and Ankara, taking into account mutual security interests. The talks in Moscow, backed by regional power Iran, offer Turkey a unique opportunity to work with credible mediators for peace while improving Ankara's security calculus.

Metaculus Prediction


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