S. Korea's Exports Down Again in April

Image copyright: Reuters [via Al Jazeera]

The Spin

Narrative A

The economic fundamentals relied on by South Korea have deteriorated, mainly due to falling exports as semiconductor prices have lost ground upon weakened demand, prompting the country's currency to depreciate even against a softer dollar. Given that China's economic recovery is weaker than expected, and that geopolitical tensions have been simmering, South Korea's economy is headed towards an uncertain future.

Narrative B

It's true that South Korea's trade-reliant economy is feeling the hurt as exports are weakening amid a cooling global economy, with the demand for semiconductor chips, particularly from China, yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels. However, though the outlook remains cloudy due to weak global demand, a predicted recovery in the IT sector and the Chinese economy is likely to prompt a rebound in the second half of the year

Metaculus Prediction


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