Taiwan Urges China to Stop 'Continuous Military Harassment'

Image copyright: Wikimedia Commons

The Spin

Anti-China narrative

China's ongoing economic and domestic troubles are a cause for concern for Beijing, making an invasion of Taiwan far less viable than previously imagined. China's collapse in the short term is highly unlikely, but to risk international embarrassment through an unsuccessful attempt to retake the island would leave Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party on unstable footing. While Taiwan remains supported by the US and Beijing remains focused on more urgent matters, it seems likely that PRC aggression can be contained.

Pro-China narrative

China continues to advocate against military intervention across the Taiwan Strait. However, the issue is one that is held dear to all those who recognize and respect Chinese sovereignty, integrity, and national identity. The longer the US continues to encourage Taiwan and ignores the One-China principle, the greater the chances of potential conflict. The reality of mainland China and Taiwan's inseparable connection cannot be ignored forever.

Metaculus Prediction


Go Deeper


Establishment split

CRITICAL

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