Thai Minister Meets Suu Kyi in Myanmar Jail

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The Spin

Narrative A

If the country's democracy icon Suu Kyi is urging renewed talks between the junta and the opposition, Pramudwinai's meeting is a positive development that may lead Myanmar out of its years-long deadly turmoil. Only dialogue can restore peace in the Southeast Asian nation.

Narrative B

The junta allowed Thailand's foreign minister to meet Suu Kyi on the eve of the ASEAN meeting so as to distract the international community and sow discord in the armed resistance. It's highly doubtful Suu Kyi would deliver such a strong political message through a foreign official when she is not even allowed to meet her lawyers.

Narrative C

A detained Suu Kyi is no threat to the junta, as she is no longer a campaigner for freedom or a democratic heroine. She is instead a compromised figure, distrusted by much of the country for failing to prevent the genocidal campaign against the Rohingyas. She is far less significant to the future of Myanmar than many would suggest.

Metaculus Prediction

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