Turkey's Lira Hits Record Lows After Rate Hike

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The Facts

  • After Turkey's central bank raised its key rate by 650 basis points to 15% on Thursday, the Turkish Lira hit its lowest value on record, weakening by as much as 3.3% on Friday.

  • The Lira — which has continued to devalue since Pres. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was re-elected in last month's elections — was last trading at around 24.97 against the greenback.


The Spin

Narrative A

Though the path ahead is challenging, Erdoğan's adoption of a policy to raise interest rates is a sign his government is doing its best to promote economic growth. Additionally, the President's new picks for the finance and treasury ministry, as well as the new central bank chief, will ensure Lira regains its pre-2014 value.

Narrative B

Turkey's economy will never jumpstart with Erdoğan in power, as his disastrous economic policies have devalued the currency and squandered foreign exchange reserves. Raising interest rates could tackle inflation, but it's unclear if Erdoğan has the tools and willpower to weather the economic storm and turn around the crisis-ridden country.


Metaculus Prediction


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