UAE to Allow Climate Protests at COP28

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The Spin


Establishment-critical narrative

The appointment of Sultan al-Jaber as COP28 president is akin to putting the wolf in charge of the henhouse. The COP summits are supposed to be a safe space to hold the feet of polluters to the fire and have them be accountable for their damage to the planet. It's clear that UNFCCC leadership is allowing fossil fuel interests to infiltrate the summits to change the narrative to what al-Jaber calls "pragmatism and constructive dialogue."


Pro-establishment narrative

COP28 this year will be a momentous event. While not enough has been done, the hope is that the results will spur nations into greater action. It will be an opportunity to not only recommit but commit to stronger emissions cutbacks and to the development of new technologies and renewable energy sources. The opportunity is even greater for the UAE as this is the time to show other oil-rich nations that there's still time to commit and accelerate the transition to renewables.


Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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