UK: Conservatives Lose Two Constituencies in By-Election Defeat

UK: Conservatives Lose Two Constituencies in By-Election Defeat
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The Spin

Right narrative

The defeats are a major plow to the Tory party. While the disgraced exits of Pincher and Dorries certainly played a part, dramatically low turnouts compared to the last general election — as well as the right-wing draw of Reform UK influential in the result — it's clear that the results are too bad to spin, and the party has work to do to regain the public's trust.

Left narrative

The historically bad defeats to the Labour Party show Sunak's embarrassing attempt at a reset fall flat. The Tories look destined for a wipeout in the next general election. Due to the rampant toxicity of the Tory party, Labour's biggest concern should be the likelihood of Sunak and the current government destroying the UK as much as they can in the dwindling time they have in power.

Metaculus Prediction


Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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