The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Upon announcing the joint venture in December of last year, the leaders of Italy, Japan, and the UK said that the sixth-generation fighter jet is built to match or surpass the finest airplanes now in use by nations like China, Russia, and possibly even that of the US. A new fighter is needed to preserve regional stability and defend democracy and the rules-based global order.

Establishment-critical narrative

"Advanced aircraft" are notorious for being black holes within the military-industrial complex when it comes to wasting taxpayer money. Take the enigmatic US F-35 boondoggle that racked up costs 80% over budget while being 10 years behind schedule. The biggest winners of these projects tend to be defense contractors — not democracies worldwide and certainly not citizens footing the bill.

Metaculus Prediction


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