Ukrainian Attack on Crimea Damages Russian Warships

Image copyright: Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine [via Telegram]

The Spin

Pro-Ukraine narrative

The fact that Ukraine used cruise missiles on targets inside Crimea, pierced through Russia's air defenses, and caused substantial damage to its weaponry reminds Moscow that attacks like this will continue until Crimea is rightfully returned.

Pro-Russia narrative

Wednesday's incident will have no bearing on the overall direction of the conflict. Moreover, as Crimea has always been integral to Russia, it's futile to think that Ukraine can seize it by attacking Sevastopol and the Black Sea fleet.

Metaculus Prediction


Establishment split

CRITICAL

PRO

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